Recent Publications
Beyond the Boatlift: The Labor Force Impact of the Chicago Migrant Influx
May 13th, 2025
Using Chicago as a case study for the 2022–2024 U.S. migrant influx, this paper tests whether large exogenous shocks to local labor supply significantly depress wages or employment outcomes for existing residents. With empirical methods including DiD and triple-DiD regressions, the team finds no large adverse effects and rules out significant declines, suggesting instead that migrant-driven economic activity may mitigate traditional concerns about labor displacement.
Researcher Team: Arnav Harve (Project Lead), Allison Yu, Gerard Blake, Kriti Krishnan, Marco Parisse, Milo Simchen, Rowan Felton, Vedesh Kodnani, and Vedika Baradwaj
Exploring the Relationship Between Incident Initiation and Fatal Police Violence
May 13th, 2025
This study investigates how the type of incident that initiates a police encounter impacts the probability of fatal outcomes, with a focus on racial disparities. It provides a data-driven framework for rethinking public safety interventions and minimizing preventable deaths.
Research Team: Sarah Murad (Project Lead), Isabel Alia-Arias (Project Lead), Lilah Bachrach, Seerat Bath, Letom Kpea, June Lu, Zoe Nelson, Emily Price, Luiz Carlos Soares Teixeira, Julia Volpp, and Remko Wang Kuijs
Pathways to Equitable Homeownership
May 21st, 2025
This research investigates how historical disinvestment, biased valuation systems, and structural barriers to credit have limited homeownership access in marginalized Chicago communities. The paper offers a strategic model—grounded in community partnerships and capital pathways—to build sustainable equity through homeownership.
Research Team: Kiran Kadiyala (Project Lead), Taryn Kim (Project Lead), Lavanya Gupta, Raymond Ha, Monica Lai, Hannah Riegel, Charles Rutledge, and Anushka Vasudev
Pedestrian Access in Chicago: A Hyde Park Case Study
May 12th, 2025
This study provides a comprehensive, street-by-street analysis of pedestrian infrastructure accessibility in Washington Park, Hyde Park, and Woodlawn, incorporating both quantitative metrics and spatial analysis to identify critical disparities in mobility access and infrastructure quality.
Research Team: Vikram Srikonda (Project Lead), Madeline Bryant, Sadie Foer, Sophia Liu, Yura Mizutani, Victor Qian, and Edgar San Jose
Racial Literacy, Political Polarization, and Curriculum Implementation in K–12 Education
May 19th, 2025
In recent years, American schools have increasingly adopted racial literacy curricula to address equity and inclusion in the education space. However, these efforts have been met with extreme political polarization and implementation challenges. This paper examines education non-profit Pollyanna’s K–12 racial literacy program as a case study, using educator and student surveys and interviews to analyze its effectiveness. Findings indicate that gradual, feedback-driven rollout, robust teacher training, and transparent parent engagement are essential to successful implementation. While students generally welcome the curriculum, teacher discomfort and community resistance can hinder adoption, especially in politically conservative settings. These results underscore that culturally competent, community-centered approaches are vital for advancing sustainable racial literacy education.
Research Team: Francesca Carney (Project Lead), Vasuda Vaidyanathan (Project Lead), Johan Salome, Alejandra Sarmiento, Madeleine Schreiber, Kate Snyder, Desanka Malinovic, and Isaiah Montcrieffe
All Publications
Electoral Reform + Policy Briefs for Improving U.S. Elections
May 12th, 2024
With the US election season approaching in 2024, voting rights considerations once again took center stage. In collaboration with partners Common Cause Illinois and More Equitable Democracy, the Paul Douglas Institute’s Electoral Reform team explored policy solutions to expand voting access responsibly and equitably. The team’s four policy report groups supported our partner organizations in their advocacy efforts from Chicago to states nationwide
Research Team: Adam Jensen (Project Lead), Isabel Alia Arias, Marcus Amine, Raymond Ha, Kiran Kadiyala, YooJin Lim, June Lu, Feifei Mei, Isaiah Moncrieffe, Johan Salome, and Becca Sealy
Safe Neighborhoods and Bright Futures in College Enrollment
May 10th, 2024
Understanding the impact of different types of violent crime on college enrollment is crucial for developing effective strategies to support educational attainment in urban environments. Thus, this research paper investigates the relationship between violent crime and college enrollment in public school districts of Chicago, examining key distinctions between high, medium, and low crime areas. Theoretical frameworks, including social isolation, legal socialization, and strain theory, offer insights into the underlying mechanisms driving the relationship between crime and college enrollment. We analyze data from the official database of crime collected by the Chicago Police Department and Chicago Public Schools, which we obtained through a partnership with the Crown School of Social Work. We find a notable trend of increasing enrollment coupled with decreasing persistence in high and medium-crime areas, suggesting a need for targeted interventions. Proposed solutions aim to address the lack of support systems and the complexities surrounding college enrollment. In conclusion, this research underscores the interconnectedness between crime and education, emphasizing the importance of addressing socio-environmental factors to foster educational success in urban communities.
Research Team: Abby Adigun (Project Lead), Isabela Avila Rios, Angela Joo, Taryn Kim, Matthew Lee, Vichar Lochan, Sarah Murad, Taryn Murphy, and Enzo Nakornsri
The Environmental Justice Activist’s Handbook
May 2024
The bedrock of the environmental justice movement confronts and ultimately seeks to dismantle a stark reality: America’s most toxic, contaminated environments are predominantly home to disadvantaged people of color. This glaring systemic flaw, termed environmental racism, is one that environmental justice activists from marginalized communities of color have fought against for decades. We have undertaken a project to examine a variety of case studies from across the country to identify five primary resources activists can use to advance their fight for justice. In our research, we have identified several underutilized topic areas that we believe are essential for furthering the cause of the Resilient Activist. Although not exhaustive, these areas encompass coalition building, leveraging representative offices, engaging with public hearing periods, accessing legal aid, and harnessing media coverage and attention.
Research Team: Elayna Whiteman (Project Lead), Seerat Bath, Chen-Wei Hu, Vaani Kapoor, Nadia Sultana, and Khwaish Vohra
Health, Mobility, and Public Transportation in Chicago
May 2024
This paper investigates the impact of transportation accessibility on public health outcomes in Chicago, and OLS regression analysis finds that reliable transportation facilitates better healthcare access and promotes healthier lifestyles. We analyze how the availability of public transit correlates with various health metrics, including obesity rates, chronic disease management, and access to healthcare resources. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analyses, we explore the relationship between transit stop accessibility and health indicators such as routine checkups, prenatal care, and physical activity levels, while controlling for median household income. Our findings indicate that improved transit accessibility could increase the rates of early prenatal care and reduce physical inactivity, but the influence of socioeconomic status remains substantial. We also discuss the disparities in transit accessibility that exacerbate health inequities among Chicago’s South and West Side communities. The study highlights the critical role of public transportation in enhancing public health and offers policy recommendations to improve transit reliability and access, particularly in underserved areas. We provide recommendations for addressing transportation barriers that would ensure a more equitable urban environment that supports the health and well-being of all Chicagoans.
Research Team: Ermelinda Calderón (Project Lead), Victor Jiao (Project Lead), Francesca Carney, Elena Gill, Nicole Gutierrez, Meghana Halbe, Ava Hedeker, Radha Ramanathan, and Vikram Srikonda
Tackling the Digital Divide: Broadband Access in Rural America
May 12th, 2024
The Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) was an unprecedented expansion in the magnitude of broadband subsidies. While the ACP clearly reduced broadband costs for connected households, its effect on broadband subscription rates is unclear. In this paper, we employ a zip-code-level regression model using ACP claims and ACS data to estimate the effect of ACP deployment on new broadband subscriptions. We find consistently non-significant results. Our results suggest that the ACP likely resulted in fewer new subscriptions than prior estimates based on qualitative survey data.
Research Team: Pascal Descollonges (Project Lead), Jatin Chadha, Irene Cho, Arnav Harve, Ndidi Opara, Saia Patel, Marco Parisse, Victor Qian, and Vasuda Vaidyanathan
Addressing Misinformation in Media and Its Impact on Older Adults
May 2023
There has been a general lack of empirical study into the proclivity of the elderly to believe or proliferate ‘fake news.’ The scholarly effort to investigate the impact of ‘fake news’ on older adults internationally has also been minimal. However, from the existing research, there is a consensus that older adults are major targets of misinformation and play a major role in sharing it via social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook. When such a politically powerful, yet vulnerable constituency has been consistently the unwitting target of misinformation campaigns, it is worth wondering first, why older adults are more susceptible to believing ‘fake news,’ and second, why they share it at disproportionate rates.
Research Team: Arjun Mazumdar (Project Lead), Sarah Ben-Yosef, Arnav Brahmasandra, Elena Gill, Adam Jensen, Ndidi Opara, Victor Qian, and Becca Sealy
Implementing Data Science Education Policy Playbooks
May 2023
These playbooks cover data science policy challenges. They summarize the current landscapes and provide policy recommendations.
Research Team: Zara Chapple (Project Lead), Josie Barboriak, Ellie Eichenlaub, Katie Fraser, Micayla Roth, Ben Weathers, and Elayna Whiteman
Renewable Energy and Infrastructure Investment
May 4th, 2023
Renewable energy (RE) investment is a necessary step towards reducing carbon emissions worldwide while meeting growing energy demand. Many policies seek to support a growth in RE capacity, with varying degrees of both political and economic success. Given the complex nature of energy markets and transmission, any concentrated effort of both public and private entities to make the green transition will result in inevitable trade-offs. Thus, in this paper, we first qualitatively analyze the political realities of RE investment and policy status in the United States, subsequently proposing an econometric analysis of the effectiveness of a specific support policy—tax incentives—in the United States using panel data and a time-series regression framework. The results—which we stress should be considered a preliminary analysis that seeks to raise further research topics—show that there are significant relationships between RE investment growth and the implementation of tax incentives. Such results suggest that, with support policies, the United States may be able to reach a double objective: increasing energy capacity and investment while also reducing carbon emissions and reaching a greener future. Our research also highlights potential future research areas and statistical analyses that may provide deeper and greater insight into the effectiveness of tax incentives on RE investment growth.
Research Team: Jin Sung (Alex) Yoon (Project Lead), Marcus Amine, Renato de Angelis, Phil Horrigan, Grace Hu, Joachim Laurent, Vichar Lochan, June Lu, Andrew Moukabary, Drew Mukherjee, Davis Turner, and Daniel Werner
The Heart of Hyde Park and Its Relationship with UChicago
May 2023
Small businesses are an integral component of their community – a role that has become increasingly impacted by external forces from the pandemic to the gentrification of neighborhoods. Literature examining Chicago’s Hyde Park is virtually nonexistent. This student project seeks to illuminate the role of small businesses in our community through a research paper and film. Interweaving the voices of small business owners with student survey responses, we provide an introduction to the small business community of Hyde Park and its nuanced relationship with the University of Chicago.
Research Team: Lisa Raj Singh (Project Lead), Anthony M. Calixto, Chritina Gao, Daniel Kind, and Reese C. Villazor
Truth-In-Sentencing Legislation and Criminal Justice Outcomes
May 2023
Truth-in-Sentencing” (TIS) refers to a broad set of laws first enacted in the United States in 1984 in the state of Washington. Subsequently, in 1998, truth-in-sentencing laws were adopted in Illinois. These laws increased the minimum amount of time that incarcerated people must serve before they can be considered for release. Initially, the goal of these laws was to create greater transparency in sentencing, as people would be required to serve the exact amount or close to the number of years they received on paper. It was also believed that judges would proportionately balance out the longer prison stay mandated by TIS by giving out shorter sentences in the first place. This did not turn out to be true, as the decrease in sentence length was insignificant, so that prisoners stayed in prison longer for the same crimes.
Research Team: Jesenia Parthasarathy (Project Lead), Suzanne Sokolowski (Project Lead), Pascal Descollonges, Samuel Espinal Jr., Yeap Qian Fang, Taryn Kim, Marian Meneses, and Margaux Reyl
Expanding Proactive Fair Housing Policies + Protections in Chicago
April 9th, 2021
Despite progress towards fair housing in Chicago over the past 50 years, housing discrimination remains a challenge across the city. Additionally, since the 2015 HUD rule Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing, the goals of fair housing programs are broader and more ambitious. In order to limit ongoing discrimination and meet higher federal standards, the City of Chicago should consider the following courses of action: Strengthening housing protected classes in line with other major US cities by explicitly protecting Housing Choice Voucher (Section 8) holders, adding a separate and explicit reasonable accommodations provision, adding protections against discrimination based on alienage or citizenship, and expanding terminology around and creating examples of “gender identity discrimination”. Addressing discriminatory home-seeking by prohibiting agents from accepting the instructions of a client who asks for assistance in a search that avoids a protected class, broadening the category of advertising materials that must not contain discriminatory content, and including online postings. Protecting against changes in federal fair housing policy by incorporating Obama-era disparate impact burden-sharing standards in local law, seeking local-level accountability for housing-related algorithm use.
Research Team: Samuel Abers, Jason Lalljee, Jonah Lubin, Max Servetar, and Alexander Shura
Automated Driving System Testing and Safety Trends in California
December 10th, 2020
This report compares California’s regulations for ADS testing with a safety driver to five other states’ regulations. It analyzes self-reported disengagement and mileage totals for ADS-equipped vehicles testing in California between 2014 and 2018, and collisions involving ADS-equipped vehicles that occurred on or before April 14, 2019. Rear-end collisions made up 72% of reported collisions in autonomous mode. Approximately 78% of collisions resulted in minor damage. All reported collisions occurred within the Bay Area. Most Cruise collisions occurred in downtown San Francisco, and most Waymo collisions occurred around Mountain View. Approximately 97% of collisions occurred on an urban street. A large number of the sample of 2018 disengagements listed issues with the ADS technology in the disengagement cause description. Software, planning, and perception discrepancy were each reported in disengagement causes significantly more than other words or phrases. Most of the disengagement cause descriptions which mentioned an object did not describe what the object was. External factors, such as traffic lights or lane markings, occurred much less frequently. There are significant differences in the requirements that companies must meet to test ADS with a safety driver from state to state. While the permitting process in California is similar to other states, test driver certification is generally more comprehensive. Of the six states compared in this report, disengagement reporting is unique to California, and only California and Pennsylvania require that entities simulate road testing conditions in a controlled environment.
Research Team: Alexander Shura (Project Lead), Abed Alsolaiman, Trent Carson, Juhi Gudavalli, and Eric You
The Case for Just Cause Eviction Ordinances in Chicago
May 2020
This paper provides a legal definition of eviction, a data-driven analysis of the impact of eviction in Chicago, and case studies of big-time landlords in various cities. Ultimately, it is stories of those facing eviction that offer a true definition. Eviction is the name, and the faces, and the stories of everyday Americans who lose their homes to profit-driven corporate landlords. Krystal’s story is the reality for millions of Americans, but this does not have to be the case. In our analysis, we explore the use of just cause ordinances and find that the current administration of Chicago recognizes the urgent need to change current eviction practices and would ultimately support the adoption of a Just Cause Ordinance.
Research Team: Isabelle Balaban, Alie Goldblatt, Sara Graziano, Gloria Huang, and Adriana Obeso
Advancing Climate Policy and an International Green New Deal
May 2020
This brief is a summary of a larger report, currently under review, that proposes design components of an International Green New Deal. It discusses the impact of COVID-19 on international climate policy, proposes 5 key policy objectives, and delineates an implementation timeline for U.S. international policy from 2020 onwards. The underlying report 1) presents a rather expansive review of international climate policy literature, with a focus on using the most up-to-date emissions data and climate projections throughout; there are 200+ unique references; 2) shares a new, more granular dataset on global carbon pricing as a rough proxy for global climate progress. For building the dataset, all emissions pricing initiatives reported in the World Bank Carbon Dashboard6 were individually analyzed, using direct government data where available. The data reveals we are greatly underpricing CO2, but even more substantially underpricing methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), which are 728-86x and 264-298x as powerful as CO2, respectively.
Research Team: Zarek Drozda
Breaking Down Barriers to Affordable Housing
May 1st, 2020
This study provides a framework for understanding how activists counter opposition narratives based on concerns about property values and crime. It further provides a blueprint for activists using existing community institutions to combat anti-integration sentiment.
Research Team: Isabella Faro, Rory Gates, Xavior Lewis, and Emily Young
Win-Win: Housing for People with Criminal Records
May 2019
In Illinois, 50% of the population is estimated to have an arrest or conviction record. That’s nearly 5 million people who face barriers to finding stable housing, which has proven to be foundational for employment success, family stability, and overall well-being. This report recommends several policies and practices—ranging from small changes to the more robust—for housing providers to use to increase housing opportunities for people with criminal records. This brief and set of recommendations was produced out of a diverse partnership, with each partner sharing deep expertise, including Cabrini Green Legal Aid, Heartland Housing, Inc., Interstate Realty Management, LUCHA, Mercy Housing Lakefront, Sargent Shriver National Center on Poverty Law, and The Paul Douglas Institute at the University of Chicago. The work was generously supported and catalyzed by The Chicago Community Trust’s Housing + Criminal Records Initiative. See the Heartland Alliance announcement for more.
Research Team: Rory Gates, Sara Graziano, Nicholas Newton-Cheh, Michael Ryter, and Jack Votava
Factors Influencing Judicial Retention in Illinois (Cook County)
June 20th, 2019
In Cook County, judges are elected through partisan primary and general elections and are subject to voters’ scrutiny in retention elections at the end of their terms. This paper examines three different attributes of judges – length of tenure, gender, and quality of bar evaluations – and their relationships with the judges’ affirmative percentage votes received in retention elections. We find statistically significant relationships between each attribute and a judge’s retention vote percentage, but only the effects of bar evaluations are substantial: judges who are typically rated “qualified” earn, on average, 10.6% more of the vote than those who are typically rated “unqualified.”
Research Team: Emma Boczek and Teddy Knox
Exploring the Impact of a Universal Basic Income in Chicago
February 18th, 2019
We simulate the effects of a $500 per month Universal Basic Income (UBI) on the income distribution of Chicago. We generate a representative distribution of 10,000 Chicago incomes, then simulate the UBI transfer, a progressive income tax scheme to fund it, and the resulting decreases in labor supply. We find that our proposal leaves the poorest 78.8% of Chicago wealthier than before, and the poorest third will each see their incomes increase by at least 15%. We compare the UBI to three popularly proposed alternative welfare policies. Finally, we combine observations about social conditions in Chicago with existing evidence from past UBI experiments to make qualitative predictions about the possible effects of UBI on quality-of-life outcomes such as mental health, nutrition, gender equality, hospitalization, and education.
Research Team: Ben Bruce, Ekin Dursun, Ananya Jain, Cameron Kay, and Devesh Kodnani
Racial Disparities in Evictions per Filing in Illinois
February 18th, 2019
Recent research has highlighted the long-term consequences to tenants of receiving an eviction filing — even a filing that does not lead to an eviction. We examine census block group-level data to (a) determine which populations in Illinois are most affected by eviction filings that do not result in evictions, and (b) study the relationship between a census block group’s racial makeup and that its evictions per filing (EPF) rate — a measure of the likelihood that a given filing will result in a legal eviction. We estimate that while African Americans in Illinois from 2000 to 2016 are overall more likely to experience eviction filings and eviction judgments, they also experience the lowest EPF rate of any racial group, suggesting that they are the population most likely to have an unjustly marred eviction record. Specifically, we find that controlling for income and other factors, a 10-point increase in a census block group’s percentage of African-American residents is associated with a 4.4 percent decrease in that block group’s EPF rate.
Research Team: Zander Arnao, Vanessa Ma, Dani O’Connell, and Russell Xu
Assessing the Illinois Referendum as a Tool for Democracy
February 18th, 2019
This paper examines data on Illinois referenda in the context of findings from prior research on tools of direct democracy. We review existing literature on referenda and initiatives to conclude that their use drives more democratically aligned policy outcomes and a more engaged populace, and that factors including policy topic, wording, voter turnout, and campaign spending can all significantly affect referendum outcomes, possibly undermining the referendum’s efficacy as a policy tool. We analyze data on Illinois referenda since 1980 to assess the impact of policy topic, election type, and election turnout. We find that Presidential elections and higher voter turnout both significantly negatively impact pro-referendum vote share, and that passage rate varies significantly with policy topic area.
Research Team: Malak Arafa, Miriam Goldgeil, Teddy Knox, and Kristy Lam
The Paul Douglas Institute
policy@pauldouglasinstitute.org